It’s closing day at Gulfstream Park and the Rainbow Six has a huge $1.9 million carryover that has a mandatory payout. There is no question that the pool will swell in size – the question is just how big will it get? With roughly 30 minutes to post, there has been a fresh $1 million bet on top of the nearly $2 million carryover. Track officials believe it will end up anywhere between $6-$8 million dollars total, which makes it a pool any horseplayer MUST get involved in. As I said yesterday, the rain was expected to come in – and it did. The entire sequence will be run over a sloppy main track. I’ve been fairly chilly when it comes to the Rainbow Six the few times I’ve played it this season…but I’ve got to take one last stab at it on closing day. I’ll play one main ticket and a couple very small ones as backup. Here is the analysis and the main ticket that I’ll be playing today:

Race 8, first leg

The Pletcher runner Sweet N Discreet will likely be the heavy favorite. She’ll be one to use, but my preference would be Union Made. Coming off a strong state-bred MSW contest, she’s bred to run well enough over the slop. The fact that her debut scored a 61 Beyer Speed Figure compared to Sweet N Discreet’s 62 only solidifies my feelings about Union Made. I’ll also use the Chad Brown firster Fame and Fortune, as well as the beautifully bred Darley filly, Carnival Court.

Race 9, second leg

A race that I think the chalk is going to be tough to deal with. King Khalifa went to the front in his only dirt effort and tired late. I think he goes to the front again today, and in a race that lacks very much early speed, I think he gets it done. The 407 Tomlinson rating for the off track doesn’t hurt, either. I’ll also include the outside runner, Wild Perfection.

Race 10, third leg

Jordan’s Image ran a really subpar effort in his last race. The reason he’s my top choice? He’s been claimed right back into the barn of Angel Quiroz, which is where he had his best success. He should be more forwardly placed today and should work out a nice trip with Paco Lopez aboard. Morality will take quite a bit of money because of his connections, but he’s unproven at 7 furlongs. I’ll use him defensively, as well as Monroe Court and the outside runner, Bishop of Nola.

Race 11, fourth leg

A wide open MSW, I love the workout pattern from Herd Mentality. Terri Pompay seems to have him cranked and ready to roll for his first race – he’s the choice. You can never throw out Todd Pletcher at Gulfstream, so Silver Lining John is also a use. Two more horses that are bred to love the off track are Arctic Bear and Lochte. They’re both uses, also.

Race 12, fifth leg

If I’m able to get to this point, this will be the ultimate sweater. I don’t love any of the favorites…It took Charlie in Charge six races to break his maiden, but he finally did it – and he did it in front running form, a style which he had never tried before. I think Orlando Bocachica sends him to the front and tries to wire the field in this spot. The other horse I’ll use in this leg is Bartolome – he has a victory over a wet track, and if he runs close to that winning effort, he’ll find himself in the winner’s circle. Two deep in this leg at odds of 15-1 and 12-1…hey now.

Race 13, sixth leg

This is the moment. If you get to this point, you’re hopefully alive for STACKS. This may end up being a good thing or a bad thing, but I really don’t like ANY of the runners in this race. I wound up on How Cheeky, and here’s my reasoning. He’s been horrendous in his three career efforts, but today his new trainer Kelly Breen has added blinkers. If you look at his worktab, since his last race he’s had two pretty decent workouts – one of them coming from the gate. I think the plan is to send and send hard early. Here’s hoping he gets loose on the lead in a field that seriously lacks pace. I’ll also use the AE runner, My Pal Ariana.

(Bold number top choice)

2, 3, 6, 10 / 4, 14 / 4, 5, 10, 12 / 2, 3, 6, 7 / 8, 11 / 2, 14 = $51.20

Best of luck to all who “Chase the Rainbow“.

UPDATE – 4:53 EST

I don’t think Larry Collmus was exaggerating on his twitter account when he said there are 15 MILLION live tickets after Sweet N Discreet walked in the first leg of the Rainbow Six at 7/5. The main ticket still lives, as well as the minor tickets. Going into the second leg, I’ve got the 2 and the 14…who happen to be 7/5 and 7/2 on the toteboard at the moment. No bueno.

UPDATE – 5:11 EST

Wild Perfection and King Khalifa got after it for the first half mile, but King Khalifa couldn’t go on. Wild Perfection skipped over the slop very impressively, winning easily as the 8/5 favorite. You don’t need to be on the lead, but it sure seems like you’ve got to be within a length or two out of the gate if you’re going to have any shot at winning on this track. If 15 million tickets were alive after leg one, there’s probably 14.9 million that are alive after leg two. At this rate, the Rainbow Six will pay roughly $14.70.

UPDATE – 5:37 EST

When you’re playing on a budget, you’ve got to draw the line somewhere. Unfortunately, I drew the line at four horses in the third leg – and none of them was Running Wildcat. His victory in the 10th from Gulfstream knocks the live Rainbow Six tickets down from 4 million to 347,000. Wish I was still alive, but that’s how the cookie crumbles. As expected, Todd Pletcher’s Silver Lining John opens up as the heavy favorite in the 11th.

UPDATE – 6:03 EST

Trinni Heart showed that his tough run early against Zaikov was no small feat as he just romped in the 11th at Gulfstream. I’d imagine he was on a fair share of the live tickets, but there’s no question that the number of tickets is dwindling.

UPDATE – 6:29 EST

My two horses that were 12-1 and 15-1 on the morning line ran 1-2 at odds of 2-1 and 5-2. I’d imagine the Rainbow Six will be paying reasonably well…maybe in the $4,000 – $5,000 range?