Grade I Kilroe Mile Analysis, Santa Anita Park – 3/2/13

Kilroe Mile PP’s with annotations

(If you open the PP’s and use Adobe Reader to view them, you’ll find my annotations…if you just open the link, you’ll find the original PP’s)

The 2013 edition of the Frank E. Kilroe Mile has a field of eight runners, with the majority of the group having faced one another in last month’s Grade II Arcadia. In that race, Suggestive Boy demonstrated that turf miles seem to be his specialty, handling the rest of the field with ease. With the Kilroe being his second start off of a nearly three-month layoff, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Suggestive Boy take step forward. He has to be considered one of the top  contenders in the Kilroe Mile.

Silentio is a lightly raced colt who seems to have a bright future ahead of him on the grass. In only his fifth lifetime start, he went to post as the 4-1 favorite in the Arcadia last month. He raced very wide that day (five wide around the far turn), yet still had the gumption and talent to finish third. While his best still seems to be on the horizon, I’m not sure he’s quite ready to take down a field of this quality. I won’t be picking him tomorrow, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he ends up being the best of this lot come September/October.

Mr. Commons would seem to be the class of the field. Based on figures, he’s also the fastest entrant in the race. However, I can’t get past the fact that he is yet to win a Grade I in his career, as well as the fact that he seems to hang a bit coming down the stretch. There’s no question that he’s a talented runner, but I can’t back a horse who is almost always less than 4-1. Prone to hanging at a price shorter than 4-1? I’ll pass.

The vast majority of the runners in the Kilroe Mile have a stalking/closing running style, which is why I’m going to pick the one horse I believe is going to go directly to the front and try to take them gate to wire. Although he’s never run on turf before, Fed Biz has the breeding that would suggest the turf shouldn’t be an issue for him. The Giant’s Causeway colt has always shown that he’s had ability, but he just doesn’t seem to be able to tackle the very best dirt horses running on the West Coast at the moment. Other than the fact that I believe him to be the lone speed of the race, Fed Biz’s effort in the El Cajon at Del Mar last August will be what I base my selection on. He received his best lifetime Beyer Speed Figure for that performance, a 103, which happened to be run on polytrack. I’m hopeful that the big effort on the poly will serve as an indication as to his turf ability, and that maybe Fed Biz’s best days are still ahead of him – on the grass, not on the dirt.

SELECTION: 2 – Fed Biz, Mike Smith; ML 9-2

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